Rondes
Licentiegebruik, zoals de CLI het in dollars rapporteert. Telt niet mee in het resultaat.
- Rondes vandaag
- 5
- Gebruik vandaag
- US$ 0,69
- Rondes, 7 dagen
- 5
- Gebruik, 7 dagen
- US$ 0,69
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gelukt
manual
Gewekt door: manual (Re-run: the opportunity round at 19:47 UTC was cut off by a deploy. Evaluate the arb_opportunities (implication pairs and sibling baskets) with your EV discipline; verify each implication against both markets' wording and dates before believing the margin.)
Samenvatting
No trade this round. All seven Polymarket "arbitrage" flags from polysniper's 19:46 UTC scan turned out to be scanner bugs, not real price gaps.
- What I saw:
- Bolsonaro and Predict.fun pairs: the scanner priced the earlier-deadline leg with its NO price. The real YES prices go up with later deadlines, as they should (Bolsonaro: 0.0155, then 0.055, then 0.16).
- Fable and Gemini Carbon pairs: these are "Will there be no release by…" questions. For those, a lower price on a later deadline is correct, because "no release by the later date" implies "no release by the earlier date", not the other way round. The scanner reads the link backwards.
- No money to act anyway: the EVM wallet has $0 and polysniper has $0.41 free.
- What I decided: I recorded a pass on all seven (EV $0, probability 0.97), noted how the scanner fails, and set a belief that flagged margins above about 10% are probably bugs. I also recorded a lesson: checking one leg against Polymarket's own outcome prices is enough to settle a flag like these.
- What I'm watching: whether the scanner's bugs (mixing up YES and NO prices, misreading "no release" questions) get fixed. The Solana wallet still holds plain SOL rather than JitoSOL, because the signer rejected a swap of ~97% of the wallet's value. I'll pick that up on the next heartbeat; no extra wake-up is scheduled. -
mislukt: exit
think
Gewekt door: opportunity (Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil (gross 71.0%)), opportunity (Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil (gross 93.0%)), opportunity (Will there be no Gemini Carbon release (gross 14.1%)), opportunity (Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil (gross 81.0%)), opportunity (Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil (gross 79.0%))
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gelukt
manual
Gewekt door: manual (Owner: new tool solana_pools covers Orca and Raydium directly. Explore liquidity-provision and other opportunities on Solana DEXes for the SOL wallet; judge them with your usual why-does-this-exist and EV-after-costs discipline.)
Samenvatting
I scanned Orca and Raydium with the new solana_pools tool and decided not to provide liquidity in any pool. Holding JitoSOL (staked SOL) still looks like the better use of the wallet's 1.007 SOL ($96.55).
What I saw
- Biggest SOL/USDC pools: Orca has $26M deposited and earned about 19.5% a year in fees over the last 24 hours. A similar Raydium pool, where deposits sit in a narrow price range, earned about 25.7%.
- SOL/JitoSOL pool: it earns only 1.35% a year in fees.
- High-yield pools: pairs of SOL with smaller, more volatile tokens pay 60–131% a year in fees (PUMP 131%, HYPE 83%, swarms and ZEC around 61%).
- How to read these numbers: each figure covers only the last 24 hours and is an average across the whole pool. None of them subtract the losses from price swings that liquidity providers take.What I decided (recorded as a decision)
- SOL/USDC: I would have to swap about half the SOL into USDC and keep moving my price range as SOL moves. Traders who move faster profit from those price moves at the providers' expense, and that probably eats most of the 20–26%. On $97, the net is roughly plus or minus $5 a year, with real downside if SOL trends strongly one way.
- SOL/JitoSOL: half the position would earn the staking yield and the whole pool earns fees, so about 3.7% a year. That is less than the ~4.8% from simply holding JitoSOL.
- High-yield pools: they pay that much because providers carry the risk of those tokens crashing. That ri -
gelukt
manual
Gewekt door: manual (first light)
Samenvatting
First round done. Nothing was executed because we're in paper mode, and the one action I proposed was blocked by the signer.
What I saw: The Solana wallet holds 1.007 SOL ($96.71) doing nothing, and the EVM wallet is empty. Polysniper has only $0.41 in free cash, with 11 open positions worth $14.63. It's down $3.47 so far ($3.30 on open positions plus $0.17 already realized). That's too few closed trades to tell whether it has an edge. It re-checks the same 3 markets about every 90 seconds and skips them every time, mostly for lack of cash. If each check calls the AI model, that wastes our shared licence. You could have it skip checks when it can't afford a trade, and not re-check the same market so often.
What I decided: I proposed swapping 0.98 SOL into JitoSOL, a staked version of SOL that earns about 4.8% a year. That's roughly +$4 a year, and the swap would cost about $0.05. The signer rejected it as too large a share of the wallet in one transaction (
exceeds_tx_fraction). I don't know the exact cap, and I won't split the swap into smaller ones to get around it. I also logged one test prediction: SOL above $90 on Nov 7, at 72%.What I'm watching: I need the signer's per-transaction cap to size the staking idea properly. I'm also tracking Polysniper's results as its positions close, and that SOL prediction. No extra wakeup is scheduled; the regular check-in every two hours covers it.
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mislukt: exit
reflect
Gewekt door: balance_change (1 balance change(s)), heartbeat (first round), reflection (daily reflection 2026-10-31)